Political Notebook

Penny takes Walz to task over TV ads

Former DFL Congressman Tim Penny used his radio show on Friday to criticize DFL 1st District Rep. Tim Walz for running attack ads against his GOP opponent Randy Demmer that Penny said are false.

On his radio show, Penny said that "I personally like Tim Walz, but I am disappointed by his recent campaign behavior."

In particular, Penny said he was dismayed to see a Walz ad that accused Demmer of wanting to privatize Social Security.

"That is a tactic used by Democrats every two years in order to frighten seniors into voting for them. The fact is neither major party would do anything to affect current retirees," Penny said.

He also alluded to an MPR analysis that concluded the Walz ad fails the truth test.

But Penny said that "I am even more alarmed by the latest Walz ad because it is not based on a public policy issue but is rather a personal attack."

That is an ad that criticizes Demmer for taking government subsidies. Penny said those subsidies include U.S.D.A. payments for Demmer's farm operation — something farmers across southern Minnesota get. He said that the ad also exaggerates by a factor of 10 how much Demmer received in tax-increment financing to establish businesses in Minnesota.

"My grandpa always told me if something is a half truth it is not the truth. To me, neither of these ads passes the truth test," he said.

Penny added that during his six terms representing southern Minnesota, he never ran a TV ad that attacked his opponent. To listen to Penny's radio commentary, go here.

Rochester mayor jumps into partisan politics

Rochester Mayor Ardell Brede kicked-off this morning's get-out-the-vote rally at the Olmsted County DFL Headquarters.

"As many of you know, I over the years as a nonpartisan elected officials have tried to at least publicly be private with my support (of candidates)," he told the crowd of more than 100 DFL volunteers.

But that changed this morning. Brede said he believes this is an important time and he is backing all the area DFL state lawmakers in addition to 1st District Rep. Tim Walz and gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton. He said Walz's staff calls or e-mail him every week to check what is going on and that the congressman has supported veterans and Rochester's position on rail issues.

"This is somebody we need to have back there," he said.

He also said  that Dayton demonstrated as a senator that he would stand by Rochester on rail issues — even going so far at one time to vow to lay on the railroad tracks to prevent more coal trains coming through downtown. He said Dayton is also needed beacause he would support the early enrollment in Medicaid, which would spar Mayo Clinic from up to $25 million in losses.

"He is a partner we need to have for a city and for the employers here," Brede said. "I urge all of you to tell your friends and neighbors that these are who need to vote for."

It is interesting to see the nonpartisan Rochester mayor endorsing DFL candidates. I did see the Brede is listed on the website for the National Conference of Democratic Mayors.  I guess the question is have past Rochester mayors also done this or not?

 

The battle over campaign polls

In the final days of the campaign there is plenty of squabbling going on over the accuracy of some the political polls. The most recent dispute centers on a new MPR/Humphrey Institute poll that shows DFL gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton with a 12-point lead over his GOP rival Tom Emmer.

Republican Party of Minnesota's Deputy Chair Michael Brodkorb did not mince words when asked about the poll today while visiting the Post-Bulletin office.

"We think it is complete and total garbage," he said. "I don't think by any stretch there is a 12 percent gap between Dayton and Emmer."

So what makes them think this poll is inaccurate? Brodkorb said the poll was swayed toward DFLers because of those surveyed a greater number ID'd themselves as Dems. He said he thought the 71 percent turnout is a problem because he does not expect voter turnout to be that high. He said that voters also had to opt-in to be in the poll and that he thinks the 20 percent undecided number in the poll is far too high.

UPDATE: Just talked with Joanne Miller, a research associate with the Humphrey Institute who worked on the poll. She says that two of the statements Brodkorb made are false. First, she said the poll is not opt-in. Rather, it is a random digital dial survey. Secondly, she said that the poll relied on 58 percent voter turnout — not 71 percent. Where the confusion may have come in is that in the methodology section of the poll, it says they did run an analysis at the 71 percent voter turnout level and discovered the polling results did not change.

The Emmer campaign released its own internal poll done by the Republican Public Opinion Strategies. It shows the governor's race in a dead heat with Dayton and Horner tied at 40%. DFLers are criticizing the poll asking to see the questions and polling details to determine whether the poll is legitimate.

Miller did say that she tends to be skeptical of any polling done by partisan groups.

"I'm always suspect of internal polls. They don't release the survey methodology," she said.

At this point, the New York Times has the race rated as a toss-up. I guess we'll just have to wait until Nov. 2 to find out where the voters really stand.

 

Big campaign day for Dems in Roch

This morning, former DFL gubernatorial candidate Matt Entenza hosted a get-out-the-vote rally at the Olmsted County DFL headquarters for Mark Dayton. Joining him was Sen. Ann Lynch, Rep. Tina Liebling and Olmsted County Chair Lynn Wilson.

This afternoon, veterans will hold a rally in support of 1st District DFL Rep. Tim Walz at VFW Post 1215 in Rochester. Another rally with veterans will be held this evening for Walz in Winona. The Walz campaign released their final TV ad of the season today. In the positive ad, Walz emphasizes he is not a "career politicians. Speaking to the camera, Walz says, "I've been a lot of things in my life — football coach, soldier, teacher, dad, but I am not a career politician. I am Tim Walz and I will always stand with you."

He goes on to say that he "won't spend money we don't have" and that he cut his office budget and gave the money back. To see the ad, go here.

Walz not included in Strib's Voter's Guide

I was startled when I opened the Star Tribune's Voter's Guide this morning and saw that DFL incumbent Congressman Tim Walz was not included in the 1st Congressional District race profiles. There is a note at the bottom of the page that says "Tim Walz, DFL, also is on the ballot but did not participate in the voter's guide." Hmm.......

I did place a call to Walz's campaign and I am waiting to hear back on whether they intentionally decided not to participate or if it was a mistake. While Walz is not in the guide, all three of his opponents are — Republican Randy Demmer, independent Lars Johnson and IP candidate Steven Wilson.  It appears that Walz was the only congressional incumbent who did not participate in the Voter's Guide.

UPDATE: Just talked to the Walz' campaign's Communications Director Sara Severs who said that the campaign did make the decision not to participate in the Star Tribune Voter's Guide. She said they were inundated with requests and it became a "triage" situation. She said they determined other requests were more important but that nothing should be read into the decision not to participate in this voter's guide.

Demmer's last TV ad rips on Walz

Republican 1st Congressional District candidate Randy Demmer released his last TV ad of the election campaign today. Similar to previous ads, this one focuses on Walz's votes in favor of the health care overhaul and stimulus bill.

The ad starts off asking "Do they know what they have done?" and puts up pictures of Walz and U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. The narrator goes on to say, "Do Tim Walz and Nancy Pelosi really understand what they have done to our future? They passed Obama's government run health care, spent $800 billion on Obama's stimulus plan that failed and increased our debt by trillions of dollars, piling debt on our grandchildren, limiting their future." You can view the ad here.

Dayton cancels Altura farm rally due to illness

DFL gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton cancelled his plans to appear at a rally this evening at an Altura dairy farm due to illness. Dayton has come down with laryngitis and had to scrap his entire campaign schedule today. The rally will go ahead with DFL Secretary of State Mark Ritchie stepping in in Dayton's place.

The reNew Minnesota Rally for Family Farms will be held his evening at Nelson's Organic Dairy Farm in Altura.

GOPers warn voters not to take expected wave for granted

At a Republican rally this morning in Rochester featuring Gov. Tim Pawlenty and gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer, GOPers warned supporters against being lulled into a false sense of security. 1st District Republican candidate Randy Demmer addressed the crowd of more than 60 cheering supporters gathered at the Ramada Hotel & Conference Center and said even though there is the expectation of a wave of Republican wins it is still important to get out and vote.

"Don't pay attention to what they say about the wave. Go out and make it happen," he said.

The usually mild-mannered Senate Minority Leader Dave Senjem of Rochester was also fired up this morning telling supporters that this area is key when it comes to the governor's race.

"As I often say, the road to the corner office is through Olmsted County and we're going to do it for (Emmer), just as we did for our existing governor," Senjem said.

Recent polls have shown Emmer lagging in greater Minnesota. In 2006, Pawlenty did very well in Olmsted County winning nearly 55 percent of the vote and many credit that as being key in his victory. On Monday, the governor made the case why southeast Minnesota residents should back Emmer.

"Tom Emmer understands the strategic importance of southeastern Minnesota to the rest of the state," Pawlenty said. "He understands that if southeastern Minnesota — one of the great growth engines including Rochester — does not prosper going forward that is going to be a problem for the whole state."

DFLers will also be busy hitting the campaign trail in southeast Minnesota looking to woo voters. Gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton will attend a rally at an Altura dairy farm.

Gubernatorial debate today in Rochester

The one and only gubernatorial debate in Rochester kicks off at noon today. With less than two weeks before election day, DFLer Mark Dayton, Republican Tom Emmer and IP candidate Tom Horner will be fielding questions at a forum sponsored by the Rochester Area Chamber of Commerce and the Post-Bulletin. KTTC news anchor Tom Overlie will serve as moderator. The debate will be at the Rochester Golf and Country Club.

Expect plenty of questions about local Rochester issues that have not been asked in other debates — especially when it comes issues like high-speed rail, health care and bioscience. I will be live tweeting the debate @PBhcarlson.

Does Walz really enjoy a 16-point lead over Demmer?

Politico reports today that a new analysis of the 1st Congressional District race by Grove Insight Survey for Project New West finds that DFL incumbent Tim Walz has a 16-point lead over his Republican challenger Randy Demmer. That poll seems to contradict a poll that came out Friday by KAAL-TV/Survey USA that found Walz narrowly leading Demmer 47 to 42 with a margin of error of 4.1 percent. So what is going on?

Click here to Download Grove Insight Survey memo

MinnPost's Derek Wallbank makes an interesting observation regarding the Survey USA poll. He notes that the survey has an interesting qualification:  14% of the likely voters SurveyUSA includes here do not regularly vote in Congressional elections, but tell us they are  uniquely motivated to vote in 2010. Not surprisingly, these uniquely motivated voters, in 2010, are voting Republican. Many pollsters treat these voters as "posers" (assuming they will "talk the talk" to a pollster but not "walk the walk" on election day). Many pollsters exclude these uniquely motivated voters from their likely voter pool. That, in 2010, has the effect of making any poll more favorable to the Democrat. If SurveyUSA excluded uniquely motivated voters from this poll, the Democrat's lead doubles, from the 5 points we report here, to 10 points.

Regardless of whether the polls are accurate, one thing is for sure — both Democrats and Republicans are pouring plenty of money into TV ads in the final days of the campaign. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced it was coming to Walz's aid paying for a TV ad that accuses Demmer of wanting to privatize Social Security.

Meanwhile, the National Republican Congressional Committee has already released a 2nd ad in support of Demmer that blasts Walz for worsening the deficit by supporting the stimulus bill, the health care overhaul and cap and trade bill. Demmer's campaign released a new TV ad this week accusing him of voting with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in hopes of getting a leadership position.The Walz campaign is hitting back with an ad attacking Demmer for taking Per Diem for days he did not work at the legislature.

Voters sick of the attack ads may just have to shut off the TV between now and Nov. 2 because it looks likeno slowdown is in sight as this race starts getting more national attention.