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June 24, 2008

I'm watching Pawlenty on national TV

Let me add my two cents to the growing body of evidence that Gov. Tim Pawlenty will become the running mate of Sen. John McCain. I offer as Exhibit A a recent conversation I had with GOP Senate Minority Dave Senjem about the governor's vice presidential prospects. Now I think it's important to note that the Rochester senator has long been skeptical of the idea that the governor would become McCain's No. 2. But it's clear he has slowly evolved in his views on this subject. When I first used to ask him this question, he usually dismissed the idea, convinced that Pawlenty was only interested in being governor. That opinion has given way to the belief that Pawlenty will in fact be selected. Why? On that, he was a little vague.
And for those who like to play the succession game, here is one possible scenario - that is, if McCain wins the presidency with Pawlenty on the ticket. Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau becomes governor. As president of the Senate, DFL Sen. James Metzen would be in line to fill the slot vacated by Molnau. But that would make for very odd bedfellows, a Republican governor and a Democratic lieutenant governor. So Metzen yields the gavel long enough to make Senjem lieutenant governor.
So there you go.

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/veep_watch/

RealClearPolitics Veep Watch
RCP Staff
June 20, 2008
Debating Pawlenty

After making the case for Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty yesterday, Chris Cillizza makes the case against him today - which boils down to the following:

1) he isn't well known nationally
2) he has a weak political organization (he couldn't even deliver the state for McCain on Feb 5th)
3) he doesn't appeal to a natural Republican constituency like Evangelicals (who favor Huckabee) or fiscal conservatives (who favor Romney)

Cillizza doesn't mention that Pawlenty survived in 2006 by the skin of his teeth, winning only 47% of the vote. He trailed in the polls just before election, and was saved from being a one and done Governor thanks to a meltdown by his DFL opponent Mike Hatch.

Regardless, it's debatable whether Minnesota will be within McCain's reach with or without Pawlenty on the ticket.

thinking about his options, he can run in two years for a third term, run for VP and if he loses is still gov., not run for VP and take a job in a McCain white house and then come back to mn and run against Amy in 2012, run for the third term and then run for senate in 2012, he really does have a world of options. The cloud is that he apparently will again be faced with a big deficit next year, he got by one with good polls but this could be much more difficult, so does he figure that getting to DC for a spell is good. Plus he has to look at the likelihood of a 2nd McCain term if he were to win, he would be the heir apparent, How does he best keep his name in lights until 2012 either as a senate candidate or presidential hopeful. And with Coleman looking good where does he fit into the picture, interesting.

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