More on the Twins
My Wednesday column in print offers a postmortem on the Twins' dreadful 2011 season.
Here are some things that I couldn't fit into that piece:
- Salary issues loom for the Twins. They are committed to Joe Mauer, of course ($23 million), Justin Morneau ($14 million), three starting pitchers (Carl Pavano for $8.5 M, Scott Baker for $6.5 M and Nick Blackburn for $4.75 M) and Denard Span and Tsuyoshi Nishioka for $3M each. That's about $63 million for seven roster spots; as recently as 2009, the entire team payroll wasn't much more than that. Even if ownership goes with a payroll near the reported $104 million of this year, that doesn't leave much room for new acquisitions. If the decision in the offseason is to slash payroll and build for the future, it would appear what you see in 2011 is basically what you get in 2012 for a Twins roster.
- The team has an option for next year on Joe Nathan for $12.5 million. If they don't exercise it, they have to pay a $2 million buyout, so the question is really whether to pay Nathan $10.5 million to stay. If they don't, someone else might. Otherwise, they'll have to hope Nathan will take less to stay here.
- Glen Perkins as closer? He thrived on the change of roles to setup guy this year, showing more velocity than he did as a starter. The question — as with most closers — is more about mental makeup than "stuff." This makes the most sense if the team bolsters the starting rotation with an acquisition, then moves Duensing to the bullpen, where maybe he can do in 2012 what Perkins did in 2011.
- Eligible for arbitration: Liriano, Slowey, Casilla, Perkins, Repko, Mijares, Tolbert and Hoey. One would guess most of those will not be tendered an offer. No doubt arbitration will net Liriano more than the $4.3 M he got this year; will the Twins then set out to trade him?
- Danny Valencia is a key for next year and beyond. His fielding and hitting dropped compared with his rookie season, but he looks to me like he could be a pretty good player, and has shown signs of a knack for clutch hitting.
- As for young players, what do you think of Ben Revere? I love the speed and how he chases down fly balls, but there were several items on the minus side: poor arm, prone to errors, doesn't walk much, zero power. Except for the errors, these were all things that seem to have been true in his minor league days, so how much better will he get?
- The trade of (basically) catching prospect Wilson Ramos for closer Matt Capps in July of 2010 has proven disastrous. Capps crashed this season while the Twins sure could have used Ramos (who had 15 HRs, 52 RBIs and a .267 average for Washington this season) when Mauer caught only 52 games (and Drew Butera and Rene Rivera hit a combined .150 as Mauer's fill-ins).
- A pretty good case can be made for standing pat (shedding a few obvious incompetents or bad attitudes) and hoping for fewer injuries next year. But maybe the Twins' problems are just a reflection of a trend.
- Wonder what starting pitchers are poised to be free agents? Here's a list: the asterisks mean their clubs hold options and they might not become available:
- Mark Buehrle CWS
- Chris Carpenter STL *
Bruce Chen KC
Aaron Cook COL *
Kyle Davies KC
Ryan Dempster CHC *
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Zach Duke ARI *
Jeff Francis KC
Freddy Garcia NYY
Jon Garland LAD *
Aaron Harang SD
Rich Harden OAK
Livan Hernandez WAS
Edwin Jackson CWS
Kenshin Kawakami ATL
Scott Kazmir LAA
Hiroki Kuroda LAD
Rodrigo Lopez CHC
Paul Maholm PIT
John Maine COL
Jason Marquis WAS
Kevin Millwood NYY
Scott Olsen PIT *
Roy Oswalt PHI *
Brad Penny DET
Oliver Perez NYM
Joel Pineiro LAA
CC Sabathia NYY (may opt out)
Carlos Silva NYY
Javier Vazquez FLA
Adam Wainwright STL *
Tim Wakefield BOS
Chien-Ming Wang WAS
Brandon Webb ARI
C.J. Wilson TEX
Chris Young NYM
— Craig Swalboski

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